I can kind of retire in (888 / 165 ~= 5.4) but more like 6.5 years

By retire, I mean spending 1k a month for 60 years without running out of money and without relying on whatever the fuck I can get out of a 401k.

Assume my investment strategy gets enough to cover a 3/12 = 1/4 percent withdrawal of the principal per month.

• t = per month
• 12t = per year

My investments currently cover 112.5 a month

45000 saved. That’s 45000 * 0.0025 = 112.5

45000 savings 1350 cushion 12t 112 cushion t

78000 income 12t 12000 cost 12t 66000 savings 12t 1980 cushion 12t 165 cushion 12t 13.75 cushion t

Every month I work I save 13.75 per month more.

~

so if i spend 112 a month, i can quit now sort of. and every month is an extra 13.75 of wiggle room. so thatll more than double in a year.

165 per year. 112 now 772 five years from now 1762 ten years from now

(1000 - 112) / 165.0 5.381818181818182

We could also introduce that withdrawal rate as a variable.

thinking emoji

Roughly matches with firecalc.com results.

45000 + (66000 * 888 / 165.0) = 355200 portfolio, 12000 a year, 60 years only succeeds 90% of the histories (on the 33 histories available - all 60 year intervals between 1927 and 2020).

Need another 400000 - 355200 = 44800 saved to quit safely. Which is another 8 - 9 months of savings. So it’s more like 6.5 years to be very safe.